June 8, 2010
A country often overlooked in today’s discourse on international politics is Japan. Its neglect is mostly due to the growing importance of China. But exactly the rise of China is an important reason to think hard about the situation of Japan and the opportunities it offers to Western states.
Japan has the potential to be a formidable great power: It has an inherent importance thanks to its location, being either a bulwark against or a platform towards East Asia. The Japanese economy, even though not in its best shape by today, is huge, technologically advanced and innovative. Japanese people are disciplined and tend to identify strongly with their country. Japan’s defense forces are a solid fundament for a powerful army. The country is thus one of the main players in Asia and of utmost importance for the regions’ dynamics. This makes it of central importance for both Asian states and the United States of America, the one Western state able to operate in that region. The rise of China, often the reason why Japan is neglected in the public discourse, ultimately, makes Japan the most important potential ally in East Asia.
What is surprising is that neither Japan nor the United States seem to fully understand the country’s relevance. The difficulties related to the US’ forces on japanese territory clearly reveal this. Japan is not questioning that many dangers lie in its relative decline. TV shows and academic discussions clearly show this. Any Japanese leader thus must be aware that the United States is a vital ally for the future. The United States, on the other hand, is also very clear about the problems of its weakening position, especially towards China. While the countries thus share many problems, they fail to work together as one might expect. This is critical, for nothing good comes from failing to listening to advices that history and theory teach you.
Well-positioned Japanese people reveal thoughts clearly targeted at such concepts in personal conversations. They complain that Japanese products are being seen as life-style products instead of high-tech products and that, even, the Japanese football-team is loosing against South Korea. Japanese workers, they say, feel tired. Some time ago, the difficulties the Japanese people endured materialized in Japan being the second-biggest economy in the world. Today, they feel, their incredibly hard work does not even allow them to uphold their position. The very same concerns, indeed, are heard in the United States.
In sum, there is a unique opportunity for the West to accommodate one of the strategically most relevant countries of our times. The United States should become aware that the rise of China does not just reveal challenges with China itself, but also, and especially, with its neighbors. While it seems to have understood this point with regard to Southeast Asia, I am skeptical when it comes to its strategy towards Japan. More than anything else, the United States should work hard to befriend the Japanese people, and this can best be done by talking about its military forces on Japanese ground. Imagine what a public appearance of President Obama somewhere on the Japanese countryside might trigger. Japan, on the other hand, should think hard about how it treats its allies. Japanese leaders should not let the immediate need for domestic support interfere with much more important strategic goals such as regional stability and, ultimately, security.
The summary paragraph pretty much sums up my feelings about Japan. And I suspect US policy makers understand more than Japanese ones do about its importance. As do the Chinese according to a recent survey I read on perceptions of Japan. It seems that Japan is only now slowly waking up to the fact that even in its currently diminished state (such as Japanese perceive it anyway), it could still be incredibly important, if it so wanted to be.